SHE is the ''Next Big Thing''. Kevin Rudd's deputy is riding a wave of popularity as the PM's approval has slid, making the cool-as-a-cucumber, voter-friendly Julia Gillard look ever better by comparison. And the contrast is a gift to a media that just loves a leadership story.
No wonder, when former Labor prime minister Bob Hawke ran into caucus chairman Daryl Melham at Canberra airport a week ago, he was all ears to hear about Julia. The assessment Melham gave Hawke was right: there's no chance of Gillard taking over the leadership before the election.
As for next term - assuming a Labor win - anything could happen. Rudd could move on during that term, or be moved on. On the other hand, Rudd's current low should be put in context. At times in his first term, John Howard looked dreadful. In 1998, one commentator wrote that if Howard lost a significant number of seats that would immediately put his leadership under severe pressure. He lost a swag of seats; his leadership strengthened.
Rudd has fallen from his false, stratospheric poll heights and he mightn't be much loved in the caucus. But Labor MPs are still behind him, and remain grateful that he brought them from the wilderness. Despite Gillard's Next Big Thing surge, this week's Galaxy poll had Rudd leading Gillard 45-34 per cent, and in the Newspoll, he led 45-40 per cent. The headline grabber was the change in Newspoll, where in February Rudd had led Gillard 57-32 per cent.
Rudd's longevity will depend on a combination of how he does at the election, his performance later and whether he wants to serve out a full second term (which, of course, he has formally committed to).
There is now, however, virtual unanimity in Labor that Gillard has the status of heir-apparent, a position that always carries risk as well as advantages. The fact she has become the unchallenged queen-in-waiting is notable in itself. A deal between the Gillard and Rudd forces, in which Gillard delivered substantial numbers, brought Rudd to leadership in 2006, with her as deputy. In government, the kitchen cabinet of Rudd, Gillard, Treasurer Wayne Swan and Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner runs the show. Gillard, who in opposition failed to get the shadow treasurer post, is part of all the big economic decisions. Years ago, in opposition days, Swan was seen as a possible future leader, and Tanner was also in those lists of aspirants. Neither is seen as possible successor to Rudd. Apparently without lifting a finger except to perform well, Gillard is the only one left climbing the higher rungs of the leadership ladder.
For a long time, people said she was unlikely to ever become leader because she was from the Left (specifically, the soft left sub-group). She would not be acceptable to the crucial NSW Right, so the argument went. But she has transcended the Left or, more accurately, elevated above the fray. One Labor source says: ''She's close to everybody. She works between the factions, between the fractions. She builds relationships - she's the first person on the phone if you're going through trouble.''
The NSW Right, which backed Rudd, won't be trying to ease him out any time soon. When there is a transition, it would look for a smooth one - and Gillard would be acceptable as successor. Mark Arbib, NSW Right power broker, is Gillard's junior minister, a useful juxtapositioning, and her chief of staff is Amanda Lampe, who used to work for Bob Carr.
As the Next Big Thing, Gillard's best strategy is to sit tight, serve Rudd faithfully, do well in her own right, and build her reputation as the good communicator. This strategy fits well with her character and style. Her record is one of strong loyalty to her various leaders over the years.
Previous heirs-apparent (Paul Keating, Peter Costello) privately bagged their leaders, and the stories circulated. There are no such tales of Gillard being critical of Rudd. It's true that one or two Labor sources cast Gillard as ready to pounce on the leadership if any opportunity presented, but there is no evidence to back this claim.
Rudd is said to completely trust her. One observer of Rudd says: ''I don't get a sense he sees her as a threat.'' But, ''unlike Costello, Julia has the balls to tap him on the shoulder if he needs to go.''
Whatever she might think about the future, Gillard does seem totally focused on the present. When her biographer, Jacqueline Kent, attended a function in Melbourne with her last year, a woman in the audience told Gillard she was looking forward to her being Australia's first female PM. Gillard said to Kent later it was really nice that people wanted a woman PM and admitted she was flattered they thought it should be her. But she lamented that they didn't look at what she was doing now.
If Gillard knows that patience is her best ally, she must equally be aware that being the Next Big Thing can also be dangerous, especially for political golden girls. Carmen Lawrence was the Next Big Thing, seeming likely to become Australia's first female deputy PM, an honour that later went to Gillard. Cheryl Kernot was another golden girl who fell. Others, like Liberal deputy leader Julie Bishop, have hit a ceiling - in her case, because she didn't prove good enough to make the final jump to leadership. Gillard does not appear to have flaws that would undermine her, and she has heaps of talent and support. But politics is an unpredictable life, where wolf eats wolf - and that's just on your own side.
Gillard herself deals with the recurring leadership questions by colourful hyperbole; the tactic itself ensures her words get attention. This week, the grab ran all day when she said: ''There's more chance of me becoming the full-forward for the Dogs than there is of any change in the Labor party.'' Her other formulations have been equally quotable. ''You may as well ask me, am I anticipating a trip to Mars''; ''I think there's more chance of me going round-the-world sailing solo a dozen times than this chatter in the media becoming anything more than that'' (this before the welcome-home for teen Jessica Watson); ''[If] Steven Spielberg rang me from Hollywood and asked me to star opposite Brad Pitt in a movie, would I do it? Well, I'd be a little bit tempted but you know what, I don't reckon Steven Spielberg is going to give me a call.''
Put together the quotes and the pattern is significant. She doesn't try to kill the speculation by smothering it with a bland blanket. Each quote has startling imagery; they're funny, can't be criticised as undermining Rudd, but add to her lustre. She almost plays with her situation, which invites the media (especially the cartoonists) to do so too.
All the talk is always about Gillard succeeding Rudd as PM. Of course if Tony Abbott won, she would almost automatically immediately become opposition leader. (One presumes she wouldn't do a Costello and decline the job.)
Despite the crafted leadership jokes, Kent (whose The Making of Julia Gillard was published last year) believes Gillard has changed in the several years she has been observing her. ''She's stiffened up. She's become a little more distanced, a little more formal, and much more on-message''. Kent, who says Gillard doesn't need much sleep, is extremely focused and knows what's important, is one of the few who is not sure ''whether she does want to be prime minister''.
As the government struggles in a low patch, Gillard shows Rudd up as a message machine. In contrast to his convoluted style, she gets her lines across sharply and cleanly.
Bruce Hawker, of Hawker Britton lobbying and political consultancy firm, encapsulates why Gillard is such an attractive political commodity. ''What you see with her is what you get. She's a plain speaker, a good communicator, a friendly face and voice in politics, and quite charming. It's a very rare combination.'' She makes her political kills deftly, but ''she's not out there slicing the opposition with a hacksaw'', Hawker says. As well, ''she's completely unflappable''.
In her job as Minister for Education, Employment and Workplace Relations, and Social Inclusion, Gillard has a huge workload. The schools building program has brought her under political fire, but despite a plethora of problem cases, the program did not fall into the disaster category; it came out of the Auditor-General's report relatively lightly, and is likely to be a plus at the election because its spending is everywhere. Gillard has not lost much skin from the criticisms.
But despite overseeing big education programs (and having a deep interest in the content of her portfolio - she once wanted to be a teacher) and the move from WorkChoices to the Fair Work system, Gillard still has to fully define herself in broader policy terms. Quite how a Gillard prime ministership would look, and how it would differ from the Rudd one, is hard to say. As is how the Next Big Thing would go in meeting the expectations that would have built up by the time she became The One.
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